Base Rate

Check the data

Base Rate Neglect is a powerful cognitive bias in which people overlook broad statistical realities in favour of vivid, specific details. For example, when given a story about an individual that seems to match a stereotype, we often ignore the actual probability that such a person fits that description. This discovery has been profoundly important in psychology because it highlights how our minds are drawn more to narratives than to numbers, even when the numbers carry the truth. Understanding this bias allows us to pause before leaping to conclusions, to ground our judgments in evidence rather than anecdotes, and to make wiser decisions in health, relationships, and daily life. By learning to respect base rates, we can counteract fear sparked by rare but dramatic events, make clearer medical choices, and cultivate a more balanced perspective on risk and safety. Ultimately, this awareness can free us from the distortions of our own minds and nurture resilience, rationality, and wellbeing. Life without colour may be boring, but life without data is dangerous!